Vice President JD Vance is seemingly attempting to distance himself from President Donald Trump after the Republicans’ massive 2026 midterm election losses.
“One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was ‘composition’ — whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win,” Vance, 42, wrote via X on Wednesday, November 4. “Despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic.”
He continued, “There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? ‘No,’ he told me. ‘We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.’”
After the Tuesday, November 3, elections, the Democrats thwarted the GOP, taking control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate while turning several traditionally “red” states “blue,” including Texas.
Vance claims that despite the unnamed pollster speculating that Republican voters wouldn’t show up, GOP voters made their way to the polls on election day — they just didn’t vote for Republican candidates.
“Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024,” he wrote on Wednesday. “Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is.”
Vance turned to another pollster, who found Trump, 80, and Vance’s economic viewpoint “wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch.”
“I’m sure that’s true, but the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone,” Vance noted. “Another pollster … saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team.”
According to the strategist, voters wanted Trump to “end the war” in Iran, focus on inflation, put America first and change the country’s relationship with Israel. (Trump initiated the conflict in Iran in February, coordinating joint airstrikes with Israel that subsequently shut down the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the cost of gas, diesel and several daily goods.)
“In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty,” Vance stated. “I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement — by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.”
He continued, “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”
Vance further acknowledged that “everyone knows why” the GOP lost the midterms.
“I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, ‘I told you so:’ you’re right, you did tell us so,” he concluded. “Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.”
