Get out. That was my reaction when the 75th annual Golden Globe movie nominations were announced last month. The Big Sick got the big snub. Only one nomination for the gem that is The Florida Project. No love for Girls Trip or its scene-stealer Tiffany Haddish. Meanwhile, Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Jordan Peele (Get Out) and Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman) were iced out of the Best Director category. Anyway! What’s left is an eclectic spread of well-regarded favorites and coming-on-strong sleepers.
So how will the 90-some members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association cast their votes? Let’s break down all 14 hard-to-call categories ahead of the January 7 ceremony (NBC, 8 p.m). Place your bets and pass the popcorn.
Best Picture, Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A good movie trial lawyer could make a case for any of these contenders. I think the HFPA will ultimately go for Christopher Nolan’s breakneck, meticulously executed drama about the historical events on Dunkirk beach at the start of World War II. That is, if they saw it on a big screen. If not, the dreamy The Shape of Water will float their boats. But I’d give the nod to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, a Middle American tale of a grieving mother’s quest for justice.
Best Picture, Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Will Win: The Greatest Showman
Should Win: Lady Bird
Get Out was hardly a yuk-a-minute riot. The question is whether the film’s genre-bending originality and unflinching themes will hurt its chances in this context. I say yes. Lady Bird? Though it’s the best reviewed Rotten Tomatoes movie of the year, the HFPA may not cotton to the story of a suburban teen making a go at it in Sacramento, California. The crowd-pleasing, toe-tapping musical The Greatest Showman makes for a more fitting and traditional alternative, despite its lesser story.
Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Will Win: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Jessica Chastain
Applause for a seriously loaded category. Meryl Streep followed up her politically charged, anti-Donald Trump speech last year by taking the role as The Washington Post publisher and First Amendment champion Katherine Graham in The Post. She seems destined for an encore. That means the odds aren’t good for Molly’s Game star Jessica Chastain, so sublime as poker princess Molly Bloom. And by “not good,” I mean it ain’t happening.
Best Actor, Drama
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, The Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Should Win: Timothee Chalamet
For months, I was convinced Gary Oldman was going to sweep through the awards season for his portrayal of former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Old-age Makeup + iconic historical figure + veteran British actor + sweeping drama = gold!!! I think he’ll juuuuust hold on — even though the tide is turning toward the young, sleepy-eyed Timothee Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name. His lovestruck gay teen Elio pierces straight through the heart.
Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Margot Robbie, I Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan
Saoirse Ronan, just two years removed from playing a demure married Irish lass in Brooklyn, dug deep as a mouthy yet endearing high school senior in Lady Bird. Now That’s What I Call Acting, Volume 1382! A talented vet at the age 23, it’s time for her to start collecting hardware.
Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Will Win: Hugh Jackman
Should Win: James Franco
I’d give tax-free dollars to see James Franco take this award and bring Tommy Wiseau — the eccentric actor whom he plays in The Disaster Artist — on stage with him. That’s magical TV waiting to happen, baby! More likely reality: Hugh Jackman’s showmanship as charming promoter/hoodwinker P.T. Barnum will dazzle voters.
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Will Win: Laurie Metcalf
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
This is CJ Cregg vs. Jackie Harris. Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf, multiple Emmy Award winners for The West Wing and Roseanne, respectively, deserve metal for their mettle. Both actresses played salty moms; both dished it out to their daughters; both owned all their scenes. I say yes to the woman who didn’t spend most of the film on a couch speaking directly to the camera with a parrot perched on her shoulder.
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Should Win: Willem Dafoe
As recent as Halloween, Kevin Spacey was still locked and loaded in the part of embittered oil magnate J. Paul Getty in All the Money in the World. Christopher Plummer not only took over the role, he’s absolutely convincing in it. This is no drive-by cameo either; his performance casts a shadow over the entire film. That’s a pity for the well-deserving Willem Dafoe and his quiet, humane turn as a building manager in The Florida Project.
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Christopher Nolan
Controversy aside, I must admit this is awfully strong lot. In a neck-and-neck race between Guillermo del Toro and Christopher Nolan — both vets who have never taken the prize — I think the edge will go to the Dunkirk director. The degree of difficulty in his war drama is just a smidge higher. And, frankly, he’s just due. P.S. I wish everyone would just admit that The Shape of Water is a more fanciful version of the 1984 Tom Hanks comedy Splash.
Best Screenplay
Lady Bird
Molly’s Game
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
The Shape of Water
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
If Martin McDonagh’s dark comedy were a book, you wouldn’t be able to put it down. Just when you think you have the story nailed, he one-ups your expectations. This includes the expectation of closure.
Best Animated Feature
Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Will Win: Coco
Should Win: Coco
Please. Nobody is voting against the adorable, music-loving uni-dimpled boy who discovers his family’s real roots on the Day of the Dead.
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square
Will Win: The Square
Should Win: The Square
The Square, the Swedish Palm D’Or winner at the Cannes Film Festival is a fierce and thought-provoking look at how we use stereotypes to cloud our judgment. There’s also a scene in which Elisabeth Moss — yes, that Elisabeth Moss — plays tug of war using a condom. Fun!
Best Score
Dunkirk
The Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Dunkirk
It was so much easier prognosticating this category when La La Land was in the mix. For this year, I think The Shape of Water’s Alexandre Desplat’s gorgeous orchestrations — which play over an unlikely love story — will rule. I’d give the nod to Hans Zimmer, who delivered urgency to the rather cerebral (and dialogue-light) Dunkirk.
Best Song
“Home” Ferdinand
“Mighty River” Mudbound
“Remember Me” Coco
“The Star” The Star
“This Is Me” The Greatest Showman
Will Win: “Remember Me”
Should Win: “Remember Me”
If you heard “Remember Me” at the end of Coco and did not at least feel the urge to burst into tears, then please proceed immediately to whatever synthesized, whisper of a pop song will serve as the theme for Fifty Shades Freed.
