Golden Globe 2019 Movie Predictions: Who Should Win — And Who Will Win?

Golden Globe 2019 Movie Predictions: Who Should Win — And Who Will Win?
A Star is Born, Roma, and Can You Forgive Me? 

Roma, baby. Roma all day and all the way. I feel so confident that Alfonso Cuaron’s much-lauded black-and-white love letter to his Mexican upbringing will win Best Foreign Language Film that I consider it a free space on the Golden Globes Bingo Card. Otherwise, this year’s movie nomination list is a frustrating and fascinating crap shoot of maybes. With no obvious errors in the bunch — remember when The Tourist was cited? Rhetorical question: Never forget! — I could argue for any of the contenders … even Charlize Theron for Best Comedy Actress in Tully.

Of course, the choice is ultimately up to the 90-some members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. But that’s not going to stop me from breaking down and making predications in all 14 categories ahead of the January 6 ceremony. Just please forget that last year, I predicted wins for Meryl Streep and Hugh Jackman, OK?

Best Picture, Drama
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Will Win: A Star Is Born
Should WinBlacKkKlansman

The only real mystery here is whether Bradley Cooper will thank his adorable rescue dog costar in his acceptance speech. The effectively moving and well-regarded remake, about a fallen music star and his muse who fall in love at the crossroads of life, has enough momentum to carry it across the finish line. I maintain the drama falls off in the second half, whereas Spike Lee’s provocative true-life 1970s police drama hit all the right notes from beginning to end in 2018.

Golden Globe 2019 Movie Predictions: Who Should Win — And Who Will Win?
A Star is Born, Roma, and Can You Forgive Me?

Best Actress, Drama
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Will Win: Lady Gaga
Should Win: Melissa McCarthy

The HFPA already went gaga for Gaga when they awarded her a Golden Globe for her work on American Horror Story in 2016. Given her display of talents in A Star Is Born — she acts, sings her heart out, dances, plays piano and emotes like a total boss — I’m hard-pressed to believe the voters will vote for another contender. McCarthy’s role as lonely writer (and forger) Lee Israel is not nearly as showy, yet just as heartbreaking and more authentic.

Best Actor, Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlackKklansman

Will Win: Bradley Cooper
Should Win: Bradley Cooper

The first time I saw A Star Is Born, I was blinded by the artist formerly known as Stefani Germanotta. On second viewing, I had the epiphany that this was Cooper’s film. Not only is his Jackson Maine a tragically flawed character, the actor carries every single non-singing scene. Even his non-verbal, glassy-eyed admiration for Ally is a thing of beauty.

Golden Globe 2019 Movie Predictions: Who Should Win — And Who Will Win?
Green Book Universal Pictures

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice

Will WinThe Favourite
Should WinGreen Book

Given its rapturous reception on the fall film festival circuit, I was sure that the crowd-pleasing Green Book — based on a true friendship between a white New York City bouncer and a black classical piano player in the 1960s — would coast through awards season. Then the backlash set it. That means the wicked and delicious tale of an illicit royal love triangle will reign supreme. Too bad its most uproarious lines of dialogue are very much NSFW and can’t be quoted here.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Will Win: Olivia Colman
Should Win: Emily Blunt

Hi, Elsie Fisher! You have no shot but what an honor to be included among these amazing actresses. Blunt had a magical year, delivering joy as the iconic British nanny in Mary Poppins Returns and eliciting screams in A Quiet Place.The only reason why I’m not calling her is because the musical had a late premiere date and not enough voters might have seen her performance. (Live and learn from my Hugh Jackman mistake last year!) Over in another era and another part of England, Colman tore into the role of Queen Anne with ferociousness.

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Will Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Viggo Mortensen

I still don’t know how Bale is contending in a comedy/musical category while Rami Malek ended up in drama. (Well, I know. I just don’t agree.) For all of Vice’s flaws, his take on malicious former Vice President Dick Cheney commands the screen. And frankly, the physical transformation can’t be denied. Mortensen also disappeared into his role of a tough-tawkin’, big-hearted bouncer and had to do broad physical comedy to boot. Alas, his awards-season campaign has been disastrous.

Golden Globe 2019 Movie Predictions: Who Should Win — And Who Will Win?
THE TONIGHT SHOW STARRING JIMMY FALLON — Episode 0981 — Pictured: Actress Regina King during an interview on December 13, 2018 Andrew Lipovsky/NBC/NBCU Photobank

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Will Win: Regina King
Should Win: Regina King

Show her the Trophy! Playing a woman whose desperate to bring peace to her pregnant daughter and imprisoned son-in-law, the veteran Emmy-winning actress makes the biggest impact in just a handful of scenes. Besides, The Favourite ladies are destined to cancel each other out, while Foy and Adams are stuck in prominent wife roles.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Will Win: Richard E. Grant
Should Win: Mahershala Ali

I’m actually rooting for either guy to pull it off. This category comes to down to semantics as well: Grant is divine as the impish fey sidekick to McCarthy and his performance features the most panache of any of the actors in this category; Ali and Mortensen are both well-rounded leads in Green Book. You can’t have one without the other. BTW: The wrong actor from Vice is on this list. Steve Carell as Donald Rumsfeld > Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush.

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Will WinIncredibles 2
Should WinThe Incredibles 2

I guess? The standard is now sky-high for animation in terms of original storytelling and visual specter. All these films were solid but none transcended the genre or will be considered a cinematic classic in the decades to come. (Have @ me, Spider-Man fanatics!) I’m betting on a sequel to a witty classic that fit all the prerequisites back in 2004. That’s close enough for me.

Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Will WinRoma
Should Win: Roma

Please see: Introductory paragraph to this post. If this marvel loses, it will be considered the biggest shock of the night. Don’t worry, I won’t tell anyone that you dozed through its first hour on Netflix.

Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Adam McKay, Vice

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win: Spike Lee

Cuaron’s gorgeous black-and-white drama will surely result in a trip to the podium. Still, I’d love to see Spike Lee make the voyage. He’s been crafting unique material for more than 30 years — and though BlackKklansman isn’t his boldest work ever, a victory speech is long overdue.

Golden Globe 2019 Movie Predictions: Who Should Win — And Who Will Win?
Rachel Weisz and Olivia Colman in the film THE FAVOURITE. Yorgos Lanthimos/Twentieth Century Fox

Best Screenplay
Roma
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Green Book

Will WinThe Favourite
Should WinThe Favourite

As a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association who votes for the prestigious Critics Choice Awards, I receive at least a dozen different film screenplays in the mail. The Favourite booklet —scripted by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara —was the only one I picked up and read thoroughly. It’s an effortlessly clever work of art. Bravo.

Best Original Score
A Quiet Place
Isle of Dogs
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns

Will Win: First Man
Should WinFirst Man

Two years ago, Justin Hurwitz won for his jaunty and melodic La La Land orchestrations. He went in a wildly different, upward direction for his follow-up. Even the cold-hearted cynics that referred to First Man as First Meh agree that they were enraptured by the pulsing music that accompanied Neil Armstrong’s trip to the moon. Hey, it’s one small step.

Best Original Song
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War
“Revelation,” Boy Erased
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born

Will Win: “Shallow”
Should Win: “Shallow”

Yeah, like I’m really going to not pick the power ballad that you’ve played on your Spotify commute every morning for the past three months.

The Golden Globes air on NBC Sunday, January 6, at 8 p.m. ET.

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